The figures are out for November. The latest figures follow the August convocation of the North American Lutheran Church (NALC), the Lutheran CORE spawned denomination that promises a “realignment of North American Lutheranism”. One regular commenter here (an ELCA critic) predicted that the months following the NALC startup would see a short term surge in ELCA congregational votes followed by a gradual withering down of congregational defections.
The actual figures don’t suggest any significant surge and it is too early to discern whether the process will slow:
as of 11/3/10, congregations have taken a total of 629 first votes [representing 596 congregations since some congregations have taken multiple first votes]. Of the first votes taken, 431 passed and 198 failed. 308 congregations have taken second votes (and one congregation has taken two second votes!) Of the total of 309 second votes; 291 passed and 18 failed.
For purposes of quantifying any recent surge, I think the “first vote” figure is most illustrative. As of Sept 2, 529 first votes had been recorded, so exactly 100 new first votes occurred in the last two months. This is slightly higher but similar to the monthly pace of first votes during the first year following the ELCA churchwide assembly of 2009 (CWA09). On the other hand, these figures do not suggest any slowing of the pace, either.
According to the NALC website, the dissident denomination lists forty-four member congregations at this time.
There may not be much of a surge now (or ever).
But there will probably be an uptick in votes when annual meeting season comes around again (end of January). I know of many churches that will be holding votes then.
The LCMC pastor here says that there are 500 US LCMC congregations and 53 in other countries. Of course, some of these left after CCM and a few haven’t completed the move from the ELCA. A few of them haven’t been happy with the ELCA for a long time. I know of one in this area being served by an LCMC pastor that hasn’t completed the vote to pull out of the ELCA. 2 churches in this area have taken their first vote to leave the ELCA but will decide soon which conservative church body to join.
Hey, Obie, I know you have been tracking this for a while. Do you have these stats on a spreadsheet where you could easily create a graph of the trend over time? Just curious. My perception is that it is slowing some …. which I would expect. It will eventually turn into a trickle, of course.
I wonder if there will ever be a study of the make-up of congregations that do ultimately choose to leave, or perhaps a demographic comparison of those leaving vs those staying. It would be very interesting information.